CCCU Expert Comment: A warning shot, not yet a crisis for German democracy

I wrote a brief commentary for the CCCU Expert Blog about the outcome of the German federal elections. You can find the whole text below:

A WARNING SHOT, NOT YET A CRISIS FOR GERMAN DEMOCRACY

Dr Philipp Köker explains why the success of the far-right ‘Alternative for Germany (AfD)’ in Sunday’s election is cause for concern, but far from heralding a crisis for German democracy.

Angela Merkel emerged as the winner of yesterday’s federal elections in Germany. As expected, her coalition of Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU) topped the polls with 33.5% of the vote while the Social Democrats (SPD), led by Martin Schulz, trailed behind at 20.5% (the worst result since 1949). However, the most interesting point of the election was always the competition between the four smaller parties, which at times appeared to be tied at around 10% each.

In the end, the differences were small but significant – the Free Democrats (FDP) more than doubled their 2013 result and re-entered parliament after a four-year break, while the Greens and the leftist DIE LINKE were unable to boost their numbers. Most notably, however, the formerly anti-Euro turned xenophobic far-right ‘Alternative for Germany’ (AfD) entered the Bundestag for the first time. Having polled just below the 5% threshold at its first attempt in 2013, the AfD now emerged as the third largest party with 12.6%.

The AfD’s success is certainly cause for concern, given that it is the first time since 1949 that a far-right party will sit in Germany’s federal parliament. However, its success must also be seen in a comparative context.

After the last ‘grand coalition’ of Christian Democrats and Social Democrats in 2005-2009, smaller parties likewise effectively channelled public discontent and benefitted electorally from the losses of the major parties. Exit polls also showed that the majority of AfD voters cast their vote out of protest, not because they were persuaded by the views of its leadership.

Furthermore, German politicians – bar some representatives of the Christian and Social Union (CSU) – have also stood firmly by the government’s decision to accept more than 1m refugees.

In contrast to the UK, where Conservatives and Labour alike adopted the populist anti-immigration rhetoric of UKIP, German parties have not stooped down to the AfD’s level.

Moreover, the AfD is rife with in-fighting between various factions –the party’s founder Bernd Lucke left in 2015 and Frauke Petry, who led the challenge against Lucke in 2015, just announced her intention to set up her own party group in parliament. This puts the AfD in stark contrast to other, more disciplined far-right parties in Europe, e.g. the Austrian Freedom Party (FPÖ), which could win 25% in the general election on 15 October 2017.

Thus, the potential for a far-right resurgence in Germany is limited – in terms of both electoral support and party organisation. The AfD’s success is a warning shot, but is not yet heralding a crisis for German democracy.

Dr Philipp Köker is Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations and deputy director of the Centre for European Studies (CEFEUS) at Canterbury Christ Church University.

CCCU Expert Comment: The deterioration of Polish democracy

Following the announcement of Polish President Andrzej Duda to veto two bills that are part of the governments controversial plans to reform the judiciary, I wrote a brief commentary for the CCCU Expert Comment blog. You can find the whole text below:

THE DETERIORATION OF POLAND’S DEMOCRACY

Dr Philipp Köker explains that the President’s veto is unlikely to stop the deterioration of Poland’s democracy.

The Polish president, Andrzej Duda, has announced that he will veto two highly controversial bills aimed at reshaping the country’s judicial system.

At first glance, this may appear as a success for thousands of Poles who protested for weeks across the country and abroad. However, even though the president’s veto can only be overridden by a 3/5 majority in the Lower House of parliament, the veto alone is unlikely to stop the deterioration of Polish democracy.

Since taking office, the Law and Justice Party – whose leader Jarosław Kaczyński has publicly expressed his admiration for the policies of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán – has taken it upon themselves to reshape the country’s political system by bringing state media and judiciary under their control.

Shortly after their election in 2015, their government overruled nominations for five constitutional judges that had still been made by the last parliament and later refused to publish a ruling of the Constitutional Court that demanded three of these had to be sworn in by president Duda. Yet Duda, a member of Law and Justice himself, refused.

Subsequently, the government effectively cleansed state media of critical editors and journalists who the party had long accused of biased coverage.

Since then, objective coverage and commentary has been largely absent from public channels. The reform of the judiciary, already at the heart of the party’s programme during its first government in 2005-2007, is now a further step towards an ‘illiberal state’ modelled on the Hungarian example.

One of the two bills now vetoed by the president would have given the justice minister the right to fire the heads of lower courts, while the other would have allowed the government to replace all Supreme Court judges.

President Duda has been complicit in all these changes and so far failed to provide an effective check-and-balance on the government. However, presidential action was inevitable after it emerged over the weekend that the Polish Senate had passed bills in different versions than the lower chamber. Nevertheless, the veto alone is unlikely to put a halt to the Poland’s descent into illiberalism.

The president has only temporarily halted a reform that will inevitably be implemented unless other countries stand together and oppose this attack on democracy.

The EU, which has already threatened Poland with a suspension of its voting rights, will thereby play a key role. However, individual states and their parties also have an important role to play. Although the UK is headed for Brexit, Theresa May must not be indifferent to these developments – in particular because both the Conservatives as well as the DUP have a long history of cooperation with Law and Justice in the European Parliament.

Dr Philipp Köker is Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Canterbury Christ Church University. He is an award-winning expert on presidential politics in European democracies. His new book ‘Presidential Activism and Veto Power in Central and Eastern Europe’ has just been published with Palgrave Macmillan.

New role: Big Data Ambassador for CCCU School of Psychology, Politics & Sociology

Big Data's definition illustrated with texts (c) Camelia Boban via wikimedia commonsStarting this January, I will serve as ‘Big Data Ambassador’ for the School of Psychology, Politics and Sociology at Canterbury Christ Church University. In my role, I will help to identify existing data sets and new Big Data sources for use in teaching and research across the faculty. I will also raise awareness among staff of such possibilities and provide guidance on its use, analysis, and questions relating to ethics, data protection and storage.

Big Data is holds enormous opportunities for research and innovation in the social sciences. In my own research, together with Allan Sikk (UCL), I am for instance using data on parliamentary candidates as a new and innovative form of political data in order to better understand political and party system change.

 

New job: Senior Research Fellow at Canterbury Christ Church University

cccu-logo-2colourAfter seven years at University College London, School of Slavonic and East European Studies, as MA and PhD student and postdoctoral researcher, I am leaving London and am taking up a new post as Senior Research Fellow in Politics and International Relations at Canterbury Christ Church University from today. I will continue my research into presidential and party politics on collaboration with my new colleagues and also work on communicating our research to the public. More information about the department (part of the School of Psychology, Politics and Sociology) can be found here – it also has an excellent research blog which is definitely worth a read and to which I will soon contribute on a regular basis.

Please note my updated contact details – emails sent to my UCL address however still reach me.